There is an ongoing crisis between Kosovo and Serbia. This crisis shouldn’t be seen as a minor crisis between two small European nations but rather an important and strategic one.
The crisis has the potential to turn into an expression of the ongoing rivalry between Russia-China and their adversary NATO. Let’s discuss: why this crisis emerged? What is Kosovo, a country or not? Etcetera.
We all know that there was a country called Yugoslavia, which broke apart after the fall of the Soviet Union. Yugoslavia consisted of many ethnicities. Tito ruled Yugoslavia between 1953 and 1980. Despite being a socialist autocrat, he had the qualities to maintain unity among the people. He was quite successful in creating Yugoslavian identity and ruling the country.
After his death, the country dipped into turmoil. Then the Soviet Union fell only to multiply it. Eventually, it resulted in the partition of the country. Slovenia, Croatia, Bosnia and Herzegovina, Montenegro, Serbia, Macedonia, and Kosovo. They all are broken pieces of former Yugoslavia. Some of these countries came into being peacefully, and some by war. Such as Bosnia.
Incidentally, only Bosnia and Herzegovina is predominantly Muslim. The others are Christians belonging to different ethnicities and language groups. Among them, Serbia tried to follow in the footsteps of former Yugoslavia.
Kosovo came into being, breaking Serbia. Kosovo today was a part of Serbia. Kosovo has a long history. Kosovo had been talking about its autonomy and even its independence long before the other countries came into being. But these talks were never given any importance.
When the other countries became independent, Kosovo began demanding its independence too.
This resulted in the Serb invasion of Kosovo in February 1998. Taking Kosovo’s side against Serb brutality, NATO appeared on the scene in March 1999. NATO started bombing Serb positions inside Kosovo. This NATO intervention forced the then Serb leader, infamous war criminal Slobodan Milosevic to pull back his soldiers from Kosovo. Later some NATO forces remained in Kosovo for peacekeeping purposes.
In 2008, Kosovo finally declared its independence. The problem is while the Westerners recognised Kosovo as an independent country, two significant countries, Russia and China, never recognised Kosovo. Russia and China are permanent members of the UN Security Council (UNSC). They see Kosovo as a part of Serbia.
Till-date 3,500 NATO peacekeepers are still positioned in Kosovo to prevent any crisis. Let’s come to the latest chaos.
The predominant population in Kosovo are ethnically Albanian Muslim, about 92% of its people. Only 5% of its people are ethnically Serb, who never accepted an independent Kosovo and still want to become part of Serbia. They live in specific areas of northern Kosovo bordered by Serbia.
When 5% of the population disrespects the other 95%’s independence and wants to become Serbia’s part, no wonder it will create an identity crisis.
Point to be noted that a negligible percentage of people living in a neighbouring country nowadays gives an unfair excuse to countries like Russia. Let alone the interests, what narrative has Russia used to invade Ukraine? Russia’s narrative and interest aren’t similar. Its narrative is Ukraine is oppressing the Russian-speaking people living in the Donbas region. Russia has been helping to protect those Russian-speaking minorities since 2014. Eventually, it needed to invade Ukraine!
The very same Russian narrative is actively present in the present Kosovo-Serbia crisis. Serbia often narrates about safeguarding this 5% Serbs in Kosovo, resulting in tension between these two countries.
Let’s talk about recent events that escalated the tension further. Given that Serbia never recognised Kosovo as an independent country, Serbia has been trying to normalise their relationship since 2013. EU has been mediating that initiative.
The countries agreed that Serbia would accept Kosovo’s particular demands, and Kosovo would allow autonomy to Serb majority municipalities in Kosovo. When the two premiers returned to their countries, driven by extreme nationalism, their people rejected the agreement. So, it couldn’t be implemented.
Meanwhile, the time came for elections in those municipalities, the Serbs boycott. Because they didn’t get autonomy. Ethnic Albanians participated in the elections where the voter turnout was 3.5%. No wonder the ethnic Albanians won the elections.
Serbs didn’t accept the new elects and blockaded them from taking office. Then the Kosovo Police intervened, and things turned violent. As NATO peacekeepers were already positioned in the northern areas bordered by Serbia, the Serbs got involved in clashes with them too. At least 30 NATO troops were injured in the clashes.
In fact, clashes aren’t new in Kosovo. At the end of 2022, there were clashes regarding vehicle registration plates. As the ethnic Serbs in Kosovo never recognised the country, they use Serbian registration plates till today. Earlier, Kosovo declared people living in Kosovo must use registration plates provided by the government.
This 5% Kosovo Serbs gave Serbia an excuse to intervene in the internal matters of Kosovo. In fact, Serbia put its army on high alert in Kosovo borders as the clashes took place between Kosovo Serbs and police.
Some say because the president of Serbia is facing criticism inside his own country. He is amplifying the Kosovo Serb crisis to distract people’s attention away.
Most importantly, we shouldn’t take the present crisis lightly. After Ukraine, another crisis in Europe has the potential of catastrophe. A conflict between Russia-China and NATO. In Ukraine, Russia is the active player while China is passive. But in the Kosovo Serb crisis, both of them can play actively.
Whatever, NATO didn’t like Kosovo’s moves regarding the municipality elections. They indeed condemned the elections and the police’s actions afterwards. They called for re-elections too. Kosovo didn’t respond to NATO.
Kosovo’s prime minister is under pressure from the majority to show strength. Irrespective of good or evil, the majority always want to show their power.
Another thing to mention is that the USA has always been blamed that they’re anti-Muslim. I don’t think so. Americans act where their interests lie. In Kosovo, Americans and other Westerners were the saviour of the Muslims.
On the other hand, the Russians supported the anti-Muslim Serbs. Not necessary that Russia will always take the Muslim’s side. We shouldn’t forget what Russia did in Chechnya, Syria, and Afghanistan. So, let’s not talk based on anti or pro-Muslim criteria. Such criteria are totally bullshit. Every country acts where its interests lie.
Immediately after the Kosovo municipality elections, Serbia had meetings with Russian and Chinese ambassadors. In the statements after the meetings, Russia and China blamed NATO for the crisis.
Where in reality, NATO condemned the elections and Kosovo’s moves afterwards. NATO doesn’t want any new crisis in Kosovo because they are already engaged with the Ukraine-Russia crisis. Simply NATO was not involved.
In fact, there is a strong probability of Serbia’s attack on Kosovo. Serbia has strengthened its military power over the last few years. It has imported a significant quantity of weapons. And Serbia itself manufactures vital weapons widely used in war. The Yugoslav legacy of the military industry still exists there. Undoubtedly, it’s a country with a powerful military.
If Serbia attacks, it may overwhelm NATO. There are possibilities that Russia and China will patronise the war.
Last year, vehicle license plate crisis. This year, municipality crisis. Of course, a spark is present there, and somebody is trying to fuel it. If the fuelling continues, doesn’t matter how much we try, the crisis may turn into a conflict at any time.
Now the question is, how Kosovo differs from Ukraine? In Kosovo, NATO presence is already here. About 3,500 NATO troops are present, and another 700 may join soon. Any conflict in Kosovo means a potential conflict directly with NATO.
Finally, we can mark Kosovo as a flashpoint in Europe. Russia and China will do everything to fuel it. They are doing it everywhere.
