The Horn of Africa is in the grip of the worst drought in 40 years, with some 4.35 million people in Ethiopia, Kenya, and Somalia in need of humanitarian aid. This is due to five consecutive failed rainy seasons since October 2020. In Somalia, the drought has resulted in the deaths of an estimated 43,000 people in 2022. An analysis released on Thursday by the World Weather Attribution (WWA) group has revealed that the severity of the drought is directly linked to climate change.
According to the international team of climate scientists, the drought in the Horn of Africa would not have occurred without rising greenhouse gas emissions. The WWA group found that climate change had made the drought 100 times more likely. The scientists used computer models and climate observations to determine that climate change had made the Horn of Africa’s long rains from March through May twice as likely to underdeliver, and the short rains from October through December wetter.
Although the nearly three-year drought has coincided with La Nina, an ocean phenomenon that results in unusually cold water in the equatorial Pacific, which is known to cause below-average short rains in East Africa, it is not responsible for the severity of the drought. The WWA team found that rising greenhouse gas emissions were the primary cause of the drought.
The drought has been devastating for the region, affecting many pastoralists and farmers whose crops have withered and water sources have run dry. Climate scientist Joyce Kimutai of the Kenya Meteorological Department, who worked with WWA to determine the role of climate change, said, “This drought is primarily due to the strong increase in evaporative demand caused by high temperatures.”
Although the region is now receiving some rainfall, it will take far more rain to help farmers and pastoralists recover. Kimutai said, “It’s really positive that we’re seeing rainfall in the region at the moment.”
The war in Ukraine has affected the humanitarian response to the crisis in the Horn of Africa as traditional donors in Europe have diverted funding for the crisis closer to home. Despite this, aid groups are working hard to provide humanitarian assistance to those affected by the drought.
