China has conducted a large-scale military exercise near Taiwan for the second time in less than a year. In a show of military strength, numerous Chinese military aircraft crossed the median line of the Taiwan Strait on Saturday. Meanwhile, Chinese fighter jets and naval vessels carried out “simulated joint precision strikes” against key targets in Taiwan and its surrounding waters. Chinese state media reported that the People’s Liberation Army (PLA) continues to encircle the island. Furthermore, on Monday, the Taiwanese Defence Ministry confirmed that a Chinese aircraft carrier group had taken part in the military exercise in the Western Pacific. This development has caused concern among local experts, who worry that China may now be able to attack Taiwan from the east and undermine the island’s ability to defend itself as a democratic nation.
Experts in the military suggest that the People’s Liberation Army (PLA) intends to demonstrate its capability to destroy key targets through live-fire drills across different parts of the Taiwan Strait.
The three-day drill, named “Joint Sword,” was conducted in response to a meeting between Taiwanese President Tsai Ing-wen and United States House Speaker Kevin McCarthy in California. This exercise was shorter than the one carried out after former US House Speaker Nancy Pelosi’s visit to Taiwan in August last year.
Tzu-yun Su, an analyst at the Institute for National Defence and Security Research in Taiwan, commented that China had designed a shorter drill to minimize its impact on the region. However, Amanda Hsiao, a senior China analyst at the International Crisis Group, stated that Beijing believed it necessary to display military force to prevent future high-level exchanges and cooperation between the US and Taiwan.
Both Taiwan and the US have denounced the military exercises. President Tsai Ing-wen vowed to collaborate with Washington and other like-minded countries in the face of authoritarian expansion, while the US State Department called for restraint.
Aside from discouraging Taipei and Washington from engaging in high-level exchanges, some analysts believe that China is attempting to demonstrate the various actions it can take against Taiwan daily.
Ben Lewis, an independent security analyst based in the US, said that Beijing initially responded to the Tsai-McCarthy meeting with less provocative actions before launching an encirclement-style military exercise around Taiwan.
PLA spokesperson Shi Yin described the drill as a “stern warning” against separatist forces seeking “Taiwan independence” and their provocative activities.
Hsiao warned of an uptick in encounters between Chinese and Taiwanese militaries, with a significant number of Chinese military aircraft crossing the median line of the Taiwan Strait, increasing the risk of an unintended collision. The Taiwanese defence Ministry closely monitored the activities of the PLA’s rocket force, which oversees China’s land-based missile system. The ministry emphasized that it was responding to the Chinese military exercise calmly and composedly.
Amid Beijing’s objection to any official engagement between Taiwan and the US, some experts believe that China’s growing tendency to use its military capabilities for political objectives could establish a dangerous precedent for the Indo-Pacific region.
Independent security analyst Lewis stated that China is presenting Taiwan with a black-and-white choice: either to unify peacefully or face invasion and annexation. He also expressed concern that China might conduct a large military exercise around Taiwan whenever a Taiwan president meets with high-ranking US officials, which could set a troubling precedent.
INDSR’s Su added that Beijing’s aggressive response to the Tsai-McCarthy meeting reflects its “wolf-warrior” attitude, which may push the US to increase efforts to contain China militarily. He also noted that China may become strategically isolated with Japan and the Philippines becoming important strategic partners for the US in the region.
US House Foreign Affairs Committee Chairperson Michael McCaul stated in an interview with Fox News that China’s “saber-rattling” would only “firm up” Washington’s resolve against Beijing, with no deterrent effect.
According to Lewis, the Congress could develop public support for Taiwan and ensure productive meetings with the Taiwanese side by determining Taiwan’s needs, using the money allocated in the 2023 National defence Authorization Act, and informing the executive branch of the US government about Taiwan’s requirements. This, he believes, would benefit both Taiwan and the US significantly.
